GNN that is sensitive to various distribution shifts.

Fire and smoke phenomena pose a significant threat to the natural environment, ecosystems, and global economy, as well as human lives and wildlife. In this particular circumstance, there is a demand for more sophisticated and advanced technologies to implement an effective strategy for early detection, real-time monitoring, and minimizing the overall impacts of fires on ecological balance and public safety. Recently, the rapid advancement of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Computer Vision (CV) frameworks has substantially revolutionized the momentum for developing efficient fire management systems. However, these systems extensively rely on the availability of adequate and high-quality fire and smoke data to create proficient Machine Learning (ML) methods for various tasks, such as detection and monitoring. Although fire and smoke datasets play a critical role in training, evaluating, and testing advanced Deep Learning (DL) models, a comprehensive review of the existing datasets is still unexplored. For this purpose, we provide an in-depth review to systematically analyze and evaluate fire and smoke datasets collected over the past 20 years. We investigate the characteristics of each dataset, including type, size, format, collection methods, and geographical diversities. We also review and highlight the unique features of each dataset, such as imaging modalities (RGB, thermal, infrared) and their applicability for different fire management tasks (classification, segmentation, detection). Furthermore, we summarize the strengths and weaknesses of each dataset and discuss their potential for advancing research and technology in fire management. Ultimately, we conduct extensive experimental analyses across different datasets using several state-of-the-art algorithms, such as ResNet-50, DeepLab-V3, and YoloV8.

In recent years, the rapid advancement of deep learning has led to significant breakthroughs across a wide range of applications, from computer vision to natural language processing, where hyperparameter optimization (HPO) has become increasingly vital in constructing models that achieve optimal performance. As the demand for HPO has been growing, the computational and time costs associated with it have become a significant bottleneck [1]. In this context, Hyperparameter Importance Assessment (HIA) has emerged as a promising solution. By evaluating the importance weights of individual hyperparameters and their combinations within specific models, HIA provides valuable insights into which hyperparameters most significantly impact model performance [2]. With this understanding, deep learning practitioners can focus on optimizing only those hyperparameters that have a more pronounced effect on performance. For less critical hyperparameters, users can reduce the search space during optimization or even fix them at certain values, thereby saving time in the model optimization process [3]. Although there has been considerable exploration of HIA, most existing studies have primarily focused on introducing new HIA methods or determining the importance rankings of hyperparameters for specific models within certain application scenarios. However, there has been limited exploration of how these insights can be strategically applied to enhance the efficiency of the optimization process. To address the challenges in the current research landscape, this paper aims to use Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) as the research case to introduce HIA into the deep learning pipeline, demonstrating that the insights gained from HIA can effectively enhance the efficiency of hyper-Second Conference on Parsimony and Learning (CPAL 2025).

Autonomous vehicles (AVs) using Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (MARL) for simultaneous route optimization may destabilize traffic environments, with human drivers possibly experiencing longer travel times. We study this interaction by simulating human drivers and AVs. Our experiments with standard MARL algorithms reveal that, even in trivial cases, policies often fail to converge to an optimal solution or require long training periods. The problem is amplified by the fact that we cannot rely entirely on simulated training, as there are no accurate models of human routing behavior. At the same time, real-world training in cities risks destabilizing urban traffic systems, increasing externalities, such as $CO_2$ emissions, and introducing non-stationarity as human drivers adapt unpredictably to AV behaviors. Centralization can improve convergence in some cases, however, it raises privacy concerns for the travelers' destination data. In this position paper, we argue that future research must prioritize realistic benchmarks, cautious deployment strategies, and tools for monitoring and regulating AV routing behaviors to ensure sustainable and equitable urban mobility systems.

Short-term forecasting of residential electricity demand is an important task for utilities. Yet, many small and medium-sized utilities still use simple forecasting approaches such as Synthesized Load Profiles, which treat residential households similarly and neither account for renewable energy installations nor novel large consumers (e.g., heat pumps, electric vehicles). The effectiveness of such "one-fits-all" approaches in future grid states--where decentral generation and sector coupling increases--are questionable. Our study challenges these forecasting practices and investigates whether Machine Learning (ML) approaches are suited to predict electricity demand in today's and in future grid states. We use real smart meter data from 3,511 households in Germany over 34 months. We extrapolate this data with future grid states (i.e., increased decentral generation and storage) based on a digital twin of a local energy system. Our results show that Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) approaches outperform SLPs as well as simple benchmark estimators with up to 68.5% lower Root Mean Squared Error for a day-ahead forecast, especially in future grid states. Nevertheless, all prediction approaches perform worse in future grid states. Our findings therefore reinforce the need (a) for utilities and grid operators to employ ML approaches instead of traditional demand prediction methods in future grid states and (b) to prepare current ML methods for future grid states.

A popular strategy for active learning is to specifically target a reduction in epistemic uncertainty, since aleatoric uncertainty is often considered as being intrinsic to the system of interest and therefore not reducible. Yet, distinguishing these two types of uncertainty remains challenging and there is no single strategy that consistently outperforms the others. We propose to use a particular combination of probability and possibility theories, with the aim of using the latter to specifically represent epistemic uncertainty, and we show how this combination leads to new active learning strategies that have desirable properties. In order to demonstrate the efficiency of these strategies in non-trivial settings, we introduce the notion of a possibilistic Gaussian process (GP) and consider GP-based multiclass and binary classification problems, for which the proposed methods display a strong performance for both simulated and real datasets.

In this paper, we propose a novel lightweight learning from demonstration (LfD) model based on reservoir computing that can learn and generate multiple movement trajectories with prediction intervals, which we call as Context-based Echo State Network with prediction confidence (CESN+). CESN+ can generate movement trajectories that may go beyond the initial LfD training based on a desired set of conditions while providing confidence on its generated output. To assess the abilities of CESN+, we first evaluate its performance against Conditional Neural Movement Primitives (CNMP), a comparable framework that uses a conditional neural process to generate movement primitives. Our findings indicate that CESN+ not only outperforms CNMP but is also faster to train and demonstrates impressive performance in generating trajectories for extrapolation cases. In human-robot shared control applications, the confidence of the machine generated trajectory is a key indicator of how to arbitrate control sharing. To show the usability of the CESN+ for human-robot adaptive shared control, we have designed a proof-of-concept human-robot shared control task and tested its efficacy in adapting the sharing weight between the human and the robot by comparing it to a fixed-weight control scheme. The simulation experiments show that with CESN+ based adaptive sharing the total human load in shared control can be significantly reduced. Overall, the developed CESN+ model is a strong lightweight LfD system with desirable properties such fast training and ability to extrapolate to the new task parameters while producing robust prediction intervals for its output.

Science is inherently inductive and thus involves uncertainties. They are commonly categorized as aleatoric uncertainty (AU), which refers to inherent variability, and epistemic uncertainty (EU), arising from limited information such as finite data or model assumptions (Hora, 1996). These uncertainties often overlap, as scientists may be epistemically uncertain about the aleatoric variation in their inquiry. Distinguishing and acknowledging them is crucial for the safe and trustworthy deployment of intelligent systems (Kendall and Gal, 2017; Hüllermeier and Waegeman, 2021), as they lead to different down-stream decisions. For example, experimental design aims to reduce EU (Nguyen et al., 2019; Chau et al., 2021b; Adachi et al., 2024), while risk management uses hedging strategy to address AU (Mashrur et al., 2020) While AU is often modelled using probability distributions, modelling EU--particularly in states of epistemic ignorance, also known as partial ignorance or incomplete knowledge (Dubois et al., 1996)--poses greater challenges. For instance, a scientist analysing insulin levels in Germany may have data from multiple hospitals, each representing aleatoric variation as a probability distribution. However, these distributions are merely proxies for the population-level insulin distribution, which is difficult to infer due to data collection limitations. A Bayesian approach could aggregate the data based on a prior if the representativeness of each source is known, but in many cases, scientists operate under partial ignorance, lacking such prior information (Bromberger, 1971). Assigning a uniform prior by following the principle of indifference (Keynes, 1921) and maximum entropy principle (Jaynes, 1957), or applying Jeffrey's prior by following the principle of transformation groups (Jaynes, 1968) only reflects indifference, not epistemic ignorance.

This paper addresses a significant gap in explainable AI: the necessity of interpreting epistemic uncertainty in model explanations. Although current methods mainly focus on explaining predictions, with some including uncertainty, they fail to provide guidance on how to reduce the inherent uncertainty in these predictions. To overcome this challenge, we introduce new types of explanations that specifically target epistemic uncertainty. These include ensured explanations, which highlight feature modifications that can reduce uncertainty, and categorisation of uncertain explanations counter-potential, semi-potential, and super-potential which explore alternative scenarios. Our work emphasises that epistemic uncertainty adds a crucial dimension to explanation quality, demanding evaluation based not only on prediction probability but also on uncertainty reduction. We introduce a new metric, ensured ranking, designed to help users identify the most reliable explanations by balancing trade-offs between uncertainty, probability, and competing alternative explanations. Furthermore, we extend the Calibrated Explanations method, incorporating tools that visualise how changes in feature values impact epistemic uncertainty. This enhancement provides deeper insights into model behaviour, promoting increased interpretability and appropriate trust in scenarios involving uncertain predictions.